Claim ITJOBS - 35% more US IT jobs 2002-2012

Leaving Politics for a while lets talk about the Jobs in USA what are the various factors which are coming into play while getting a Job in USA.

The Job Market in USA is getting more fragile and more and more people are leaving the USA JOB Industry and starting there Small Business. Whereas more and more Small Businesses and Large are Outsourcing there work to Asia. This changes the overall trend of Jobs in USA

In 2002 there were approximately 1.71 million computer specialists in the United States earning over $50,000/year. How many will there be in 2012?

Offshore outsourcing has many IT workers worried that they will lose their jobs to cheaper workers in India and China; meanwhile the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics predicts a 35.8% increase in the number of computer specialists from 2002 and 2012.

The payout of this claim depends on the number of computer specialists in the United States in 2012 who earn over $50,000 per year in 2002 dollars. It will pay 100 if the number of such jobs increases by 35% to more than 2.31 million. It will pay 0 if the number of such jobs falls by 35% to less than 1.11 million. Otherwise it pays 1 cent per 11,983 such jobs beyond the first 1,112,721. For example, if the number of such jobs is unchanged at 1,711,879 this claim pays 50.
How do we count computer specialists?This claim will be judged on the basis of statistics published by the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics, or its successor. In 2002 the BLS categories for computer specialists were: computer programmer, computer analysts, database administrators, and computer scientists, software engineers, and system administrators. Computer support roles and information systems managers were excluded because those jobs do not typically require a degree related to computing. For 2012 the judge should try to use the statistics for the same job categories. If the categories change then the data for job categories that often require a degree related to computing should be used. In 2002 the BLS statistics were given as percentiles so we can use a linear interpolation to estimate the exact number earning more than $50k. For example, 75% of programmers earned more than $45,960, 50% earned more than $60,290, so (50 + 25 * (60290-50000)/(60290-45960)) approximately 67.95% of computer programmers earned more than $50k, or 339,0780 of the 449,000. The data for 2002 are given in the table below.